Managing the EU energy crisis and greenhouse gas emissions: Seasonal ARIMA forecast

Changes in the logistics of energy resources and their potential shortage are causing a review EU policy. The sector significantly affects progress toward achieving climate policy goals due to significt greenhouse gas emissions. REPowerEU plan, implemented EU27 overcome crisis, requires new forecasts emissions change European This paper aims examine consequences management crisis caused by Russia’s invasion Ukraine on study focuses forecasting until 2030 uses Seasonal ARIMA model based quarterly time series EU27. Depending changes positive or negative scenario for may occur. An important parameter that should be considered when determining development according was defined correlation analysis.According under influence effects Russian Ukraine, value at beginning will 0.752911 tons per capita. shows can reduced 0.235225 capita.The results proved two extreme scenarios emissions, depending how crisis. AcknowledgmentThe authors appreciate copyright holder: © Union, 1995–2022, as well source extracted data, which is Commission website, Eurostat http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat (accessed 16 October 2022). funded Union (the project No. 101048079 – EU4SmartED ERASMUS-JMO-2021-HEI-TCH-RSCH); Ministry Education Science (projects 0122U000788, 0122U000769, 0121U109553, 0120U102001, 0122U000777).This research Faculty Organization Management Silesian University Technology (grant number: 13/990/BK_23/0178).